Reverse Jam's NBA Power Rankings: Week 0

REVERSE JAM PRE-SEASON RANKINGS

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Matt: 

Buy Low: Minnesota

With the addition of Kris Dunn to a young and ambitious roster that boasts the last two Rookie of the Years, the Timberwolves are going to take a big leap this season and squeak into the playoffs given the growth of young stars: Andrew Wiggins and Karl-Anthony Towns



Sell High: Knicks

As a fan of the Knicks, it breaks my wishful soul to admit that, no - The Knicks won’t peak at 3rd in the East and obliterate teams.  Throwback Melo and vintage Rose aren’t going to appear and complement Porzingod to terrorize the Eastern conference.  If Rose were to somehow play this season at the level as described on my earlier post, then it would be a different story.  Simply put, Melo is getting old, Porzingis is young, and their most hyped offseason acquisitions are a huge gamble.

Daniel: 

Buy low: Houston Rockets

Under the leadership of Mike “Pringles” D’Antoni, Houston looks poised to make some noise in a tumultuous Western Conference. New additions Ryan Anderson and Eric Gordon should fit right in with the head coach’s ideology of offense as the first, second, and third priority. Houston has averaged over 123 points per game in the preseason and looks to be a serious challenger to Golden State as the best offense in the league. In the last two years, Houston has the first and third highest three point shooting seasons by volume. Don’t be surprised if they break their own record by launching well above 30 three pointers a game. 

Of course, the defense will be porous at best. Beverley is not the defender he was just two years ago and Ariza can only tip so many passes.  James Harden and Eric Gordon are a defensive tandem incapable of stopping even an average wing duo. The introduction of Ryan Anderson will only put more pressure on the young shoulders of Clint Capela on the defensive end. HOWEVER, if this team can cobble together a defense that ranks above 22nd or so, the offense should be potent enough to secure a top 4 seed in the West.

Sell High: Milwaukee Bucks  

A star emerges… and a team declines. The loss of Khris Middleton cannot be understated. Last season, the Bucks as a team made 440 three pointers, good for 30th in the league. The Bucks were the worst three point shooting team in a league inevitably swinging towards pace and space. Khris Middleton made 143 threes, nearly a third of the entire roster’s total! Couple that in with the loss of Jerryd Bayless, and just like that the Bucks will have to replace well over half of an already abysmal three point total. The Bucks are so concerned that they traded third string guard Tyler Ennis for forward Michael Beasley and traded Michael Carter-Williams for Tony Snell. Tony Snell! Beasley and Snell are not the answer to any sort of basketball question worth asking. Greg Monroe’s fit in Milwaukee also continues to raise both eyebrows and questions. Simply put, this is a team looking to find an identity beyond “the team with all the oversized players.”

Playing around with Big Ball and Point Giannis is all well and good, but at this point, the Bucks look like a team that would be happy to be in the race for the 8 seed. 

John: 

Buy Low: Charlotte Hornets

As sad as it may be, the Hornets 2016 playoff run was ended by somebody who wasn’t even a part of the organization.  Dwyane Wade was ready to pack his bags and think about free agency… then a voice from the crowd made its way into Wade’s ears, and the garbage that was spoken catalyzed a chemical reaction in his brain that caused his body to think it was 2006, and hell was risen.  He hit two straight 3-pointers -- after making a total of 7 all year -- and brought the Heat back in a pivotal Game 6 of the Eastern Conference First Round.  The Hornets then keeled over in Game 7, and thus ended their season.  This is the legend of the Purple Shirt Man.

But that season is done, and the Hornets are primed for a top-5 finish in the Eastern Conference. While losing Jeremy Lin and Big Al may take some punch out of the bench unit, I don't think the losses will be game-changers.  Kemba Walker has emerged as not only a force at the point, but a true leader and somebody they can lean on when they really need a bucket.  With MKG back at full health, Batum re-signed, and Zeller poised for a breakout, this team is definitely going places.  The squad possesses all of the necessary components to be efficient in today’s NBA: pacing, spacing, and a strong defensive core.  If everyone stays healthy, expect them to make a stand in a tough Eastern Conference.  Keep an eye on this team as the season goes on.

Sell High: Sacramento Kings

Do you smell a dumpster fire?  Maybe a little harsh, but this team has 99 problems.  Rudy Gay, their second best player, has publicly stated that he doesn’t want to play for the team.  Their starting point guard is suspended for the beginning of the season on domestic abuse charges, and his backup is Ty Lawson. No comment.  Ben McLemore makes a good case for least impactful starter in the league, Rondo is no longer there to force feed them good shots, and their “big” free agent pull was Arron Afflalo.  The show revolves around mercurial big man Boogie Cousins, who is incredibly talented but really needs to mature if he wants to get anything done in the league.  So yes, this team has about as much stability as the San Andreas fault line.  Even though they have one of most -- if not the most -- offensively talented big man in the league, I just can't put them ahead of the promising young teams like the Nuggets and Suns.

Not to mention the defense, which will undoubtedly be a bottom dweller.  Cousins is a heck of a shot blocker, but isn’t really the force that guys like Deandre Jordan or Hassan Whiteside are down there.    There'll be a lot of pressure on him perimeter defense that's looking to be average on the best nights.  Many analysts are betting on Sacramento to gather a bag full of wins based solely on DeMarcus’ talent, but I really can’t see them getting too far past the 25-win threshold this season.

New Orleans Pelicans Offseason Report: Trouble In the Big Easy

Marcus Rabara
Staff Writer

After showing promise during the 2014-15 season by making the playoffs for the first time in the post-Chris Paul era, the Pelicans have regressed under the tutelage of former Phoenix Suns head coach, Alvin Gentry. The firing of often-baffling coach Monty Williams following an abbreviated playoff run was hoped by many to be another step in the path towards the first championship in franchise history; unfortunately, the 2015-16 season proved to be a struggle for the injury-plagued squad. Losing the MVP level talent of team captain Anthony Davis due to nagging injuries for much of the season was a huge blow, but larger injuries to Tyreke Evans, Eric Gordon, and Jrue Holiday proved costly as well. However, even at full strength, a lack of depth and inconsistent play from key stars left them with a disappointing 30-52 record, just 12th in the Conference. This season, the Pelicans hope to return to the playoffs with the addition of some new players as well as a mostly returning (and healthy) starting lineup from last season.

First-round draft pick and University of Oklahoma star shooting guard Buddy Hield was arguably the best pure shooter in the draft class this year. Hield proved his ability to make NBA distance 3-pointers, often draining from well beyond the college line. The Pelicans hope he is able to space the floor for superstar Anthony Davis to work inside, something former Pelicans SG Eric Gordon often failed to do. Langston Galloway, an under-the-radar signing from the Knicks, has proved that he is more than capable of running an NBA offense from the point guard position in his 2 years in New York, and is a good insurance policy behind the oft-injured and mercurial Jrue Holiday. In a surprise move, the Pelicans gambled on small forward Solomon Hill, signing him to a 4-year deal worth $48 million this offseason. Despite the questionable contract, Hill could also be a solid addition to a team in need of talent and depth. The former 23rd overall pick in the 2013 draft showed an ability to be a serviceable starter for the Pacers in the absence of Paul George. Given adequate playing time, which he failed to get with the Pacers last season, Hill could very well be an above average addition to the Pelicans roster.

In a weaker Western Conference than the one they made the playoffs in just two years ago, the Pelicans could again find themselves in the playoff hunt this season. With a late-season hot streak or breakout season from one of its young or underutilized players, it is not out of the question that the Pelicans could push their way into the first round and beyond, despite their weaknesses. Don’t be surprised if you see The Unibrow and his crew upset an older favorite next June.

Wingspan in the Gameplan: A Brief Study With Way Too Many Numbers

Daniel Arellano

Staff Writer

The NBA draft has always been a nebulous matter at best, with scouting rumors flying around haphazardly as teams frantically try to avoid making a decision that will be mocked for years to come (shoutout to Joe Dumars). Teams must examine everything about a prospect, from their mental strength, shooting stroke, and of course, the body that they bring to the league. Around that time of year, one of the most prominent buzzwords that gets tossed around by pundits is the highly valued wingspan. 

As with everything basketball related, offense has already been covered to death. And as prized as those lanky arms may be, outside of the paint, it appears to be a detriment towards a player’s shooting ability. Thanks to redditor /u/mowshowitz, we can see that players with particularly long arms actually appear to be hindered, once they leave the restricted area. Just watch Deandre Jordan for a game and you'll quickly see that he is very effective within his range, which just happens to be the length of his arm.

Defense, however, is a completely different story. Take a look around the league and you’ll find that the top tier defenders almost always have those annoyingly long arms that seem to completely envelop their man. There are few sights as entertaining as Kawhi Leonard flying around the court with his crazy octopus arms, disrupting passing lanes and making his mark appear to effectively disappear. Turn your sights to the shortest rim protector in the game, Draymond Green. After coming into the league as a tweener, Green has overcome his “short” stature thanks to his uncannily long wingspan (85.25 inches). Although he defies all prior thoughts about centers in the NBA, the reasoning seems to be pretty intuitive: a player with longer arms is more easily able to disrupt a shot attempt. Poor Dwight Howard, a victim of no-neck syndrome, knows this better than most. Although he seems to be closer to 6’9” than 6’11”, his standing reach rings in at a towering 9’3.5’’. 

We have to have some measurable way to test this. As revered as the eye test may be, it can favor the players with positive reputations that have taken a step back (think Jimmy Butler) or perhaps never really had it all (think Russell Westbrook). One of the most practical (if crude) ways we can do this is with a simple corollary test. 

At any given time there are around 390 (30 teams with 13 roster spots) players in the NBA. In the interest of time, I eventually settled on the sample size of 60 as it was nearly 15% of this population. To ensure that we weeded out all of the scrubs that never got any burn in the league, I limited the available pool of players to those that had played in 60% of all games in the last three years with at least 15 minutes per game. In a perfect world, this will prevent any statistical outliers, á la 2016 Nikola Jokic. (Side note, Jokic has undoubtedly earned his chance to get big time minutes, and is poised for a year that has real significance outside of a stat geek’s wet dream.)

The NBA has always been a league of tall and lanky guys, but we need some kind of equalizer to compare the defense of Giannis to the defense of JJ Redick. (Los Angeles’ favorite sharpshooter is one of only a few players in the league to have a wingspan shorter than his height.) Creating a simple ratio of wingspan: height should do the trick here nicely. 

Out of curiosity I found that the average American male has a wingspan:height ratio of 1.024, compared to the sampled NBA player mean of 1.059. Although the difference appears small on first glance, it must be remembered that this is the exact purpose of the number: to equalize the ratio between people of different sizes. The distribution of the sample appears fairly normal according to the histogram. If the average American male (yeah, you) was included in the data, he would find himself in the third column.

The measure that I chose to use to represent defensive effectiveness is Opponent Field Goal Percentage Difference. This statistic represents the difference in shooting percentage when a particular player is defending the shooter; a negative value indicates that a player is effective on defense and a positive value indicates the opposite. Just like any other statistic in the sport, it is useless on the small scale when used without any context. For our purposes, it will do the job nicely.

WARNING: MATH

I hate to break out mathematics as much as anyone, but in order to make sure that the results mean something, I will have to conduct a hypothesis test. The best test in this case would not be the traditional one sample z-test but instead is the Pearson Correlation Coefficient.


Stick with me for a second, and it’ll pay off, I swear.


Essentially, this test will find the r value, which will lie between -1 and 1, depending on the strength of the relationship. A value close to 1 indicates a positive relationship, while a value close to -1 indicates a negative relationship. An r value near 0 indicates that there is little to no relationship between the two variables. (If we wind up with that, then I just wasted a whole lot of time on SportVU.) A good indication of the results of the test can be seen by simply plotting the data.

So far, so good. The scatter plot suggests that there is at least a moderate negative correlation as indicated by the inverse relationship between WS:H and OFG%. Whether this is accurate will be reflected in the actual testing. At the very least, we got a nice chart to point to when this whole thing wraps up.

Before beginning a hypothesis test, it is necessary to check that all required conditions have been met. In order to find a Pearson Correlation Coefficient the data must be “either an interval or ratio scale” This is satisfied, as both variables are in the form of a ratio (percentage is simply another form of a ratio x:100). Also, the data must be appear to be linear in its relation. Taking a quick look at the chart above, and there doesn’t seem to be any weird bends or dips. Fortunately, statistics allows for a bit of liberalness when dealing with this sort of thing.

With the necessary assumptions confirmed, the data can actual be tested. For the purposes of this test the null hypothesis (H0) will be that there is no relationship between wingspan and OFG%. (Hint: We really don’t want to accept that) The alternate hypothesis ( H1) will be that there is evidence to reject the null hypothesis and state that there is at least some sort of relationship between having long arms and being a plus defender.

We’re almost done with the math, I promise. It will get worse before it gets better, though.

The formula for conducting the Pearson Correlation is:

I’ll spare you the details but this is what the final function will look like:

Yada, yada, just plugging in some number while we wait for the NBA season to finally start...

Essentially the r-squared value indicates that 26.1% of the changes in OFG% can be attributed to the change in relative wingspan.

And for the other 73.9%? That would be everything else. Maybe the shooter got a nice bounce. Maybe the defender bit on a silly head fake. The results are hardly perfect, but they do make an interesting piece of evidence in the discussion.

TL;DR

As painful as it may be to admit, this test doesn’t tell us too much. Wingspan is just another tool in a good defender’s repertoire. Even the most physically gifted of defenders can be a detriment if they lack the IQ to capitalize on their advantages. There will always be players that have all of the tools to be transcendent, but lack the mindset or dedication to put it all together. This is pretty much what any student of the game knows already; you wouldn’t be Gary Payton if your arms were a little longer, so hold off on that “corrective” surgery.

The Chris Bosh Situation

John Askins
Staff Writer

As many basketball fans may know, superstar forward Chris Bosh’s career with the Miami Heat, and possibly the NBA, has come to an end.  Bosh has battled issues with his blood in the past three years, including clots in both of his legs that have caused him to miss large portions of the past two seasons. These clots have a possibility of breaking free and travelling to a critical area such as his lungs or heart, which would likely be fatal.  Bosh is forced to take blood thinners to combat this condition, which in turn makes him extra vulnerable to even the smallest of cuts, since his blood cannot coagulate and stop the bleeding.  This is the same condition that caused former Trail Blazers star Jerome Kersey to lose his life earlier this year.  Kersey had a clot in his right calf, which eventually moved into his lung, and caused his premature death.  Kersey’s tragic story highlights just how serious Bosh’s condition is: a matter of life and death.  Bosh failed his physical with the Miami Heat last Friday, which means that he cannot play basketball with the Heat organization this season, and Team President Pat Riley went as far as to say that Bosh’s career with the Heat is over. 

A deciding factor behind the decision to sit Bosh likely stems from a personal experience that head coach Erik Spoelstra endured while playing college basketball for the University of Portland in 1990.  Loyola Marymount University was a powerhouse that year, compiling a 26-5 record thanks in large to power forward Hank Gathers. Gathers was a supernatural athlete, possessing the strength and athleticism to dominate the position at just 6’7”.  However, he suffered from an irregular heartbeat, among other vascular problems. Portland was set to play LMU for a bid to the NCAA Tournament on March 4th, 1990, a game which garnered national attention and a packed house.  Gathers had been dominating the game early, and with 13:34 left in the 1st half he went up high to stuff an alley-oop jam.  After scoring, he ran back on defense, then collapsed on the court.  Gathers was announced dead that evening, shocking the world; especially Erik Spoelstra, who was a mere 6 feet away from Gathers when the incident occurred.  Spoelstra says that the image still haunts him, and it is very possible that this experience is playing into the Heat’s decision to take the cautious route with Bosh and not allow him to risk it all by continuing to play.

Chris Bosh is one of the most sincere and personable players in the NBA, which is why it is such a tragedy that he is faced with these circumstances.  Since being selected with the 4th pick in the epic 2003 NBA Draft that featured the likes of Lebron James, Carmelo Anthony, Dwyane Wade and Bosh himself, he has been an emphatic player and genuine person.  Getting to know him, his passion for computer science, and witnessing his goofy antics on the sidelines has made the basketball world fall in love with him. His early days with the Toronto Raptors saw him rise to be one of this era’s greats, as he churned out 20-10 double-doubles for 7 years on his way to 5 All-Star game appearances and an All-NBA 2nd Team selection.  The next 6 years were spent with the Miami Heat, where he tacked on 6 more All-Star appearances and 2 NBA Championships, while being an integral part of one of the most talented teams in NBA history.  Even when Lebron James and his posse packed it up and headed for Cleveland, Bosh signed a new 5-yr deal with Miami, which would cement him in the upper echelon of Miami Heat basketball forever.  Bosh has played with a tenacity and passion that will surely put him in the Hall Of Fame conversation when the time comes.

While we are all hoping to see Bosh in a Miami Heat jersey again, his well-being is the primary objective.  Above all, I sincerely hope that he can recover in full and live a long and prosperous life. But I’m gonna miss that pretty left-handed jumper.

Get well soon Bosh.

2016-17 Breakout Star: Harrison Barnes

John Askins

Staff Writer

After barely being able to hit the broad side of a barn in the 2016 playoffs, Harrison Barnes signed a 4yr/$94.4m max deal with the Dallas Mavericks in the offseason.  We all knew a max deal was coming his way, but his departure to the Mavericks turned some heads.

Barnes was drafted 8th overall in the 2012 NBA Draft by the Golden State Warriors, and has since spent 4 years playing third and fourth fiddle to the likes of Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green.  We obviously can't argue with that, those are three of the 10 best players in the league right now.  But given the right attention and opportunity, Barnes has the chance to become a potent scorer.  Coming out of high school, he was the #1 overall recruit in the nation, and it wasn’t hard to see why.  He possesses spectacular athleticism (check out these posters on Nikola Pekovic and Ersan Ilyasova), can shoot the ball well from 3 (career 38% from beyond the arc), and put it on the floor and take it to the hoop with some vigor.  He didn’t quite turn out to be the #1 overall college or NBA player he was initially expected to be, but he was (and still is) brimming with potential. 

The problem is, Barnes hasn’t shown a whole lot of improvement through his 4 years in the association.  His PPG has risen each of those years, however that number has risen from 9.2 as a rookie to just 11.7 this past season.  On top of that, there hasn’t been a significant change in his shooting percentages or secondary stats like rebounds and assists.  As stated before, the tools are there, but he wasn’t given the attention needed to thrive in the midst of a crowded Warriors roster.  However, that’s exactly what’s going to be different with the Mavs; they’re likely going to run a starting lineup of Deron Williams, Wesley Matthews, Barnes, Dirk Nowitzki, and Andrew Bogut.  That's quite a few other mouths to feed, but none of the aforementioned players are possession eating scorers, meaning Barnes will get his shots.  The only person he’ll clearly have to take a backseat to is Dirk, who is still a fantastic basketball player, but isn’t quite the ball-dominating star he used to be.  Moreover, Barnes is the second highest paid player on the team, so the front office is going to make sure that coach Rick Carlisle gives him every chance to succeed and become a star.

On the topic of Carlisle, the Mavericks coach has proven in his 8 years that he knows how to make the most out of his players.  While not many recent Mavericks have crossed the 20-point-per-game threshold with the exception of Dirk, there have been a few teams like the 2011 Championship squad that featured a plethora of very productive players like Shawn Marion, Jason Terry, Caron Butler, and J.J. Barea.  Both Terry and Marion were at the late stages of their career, well past their prime, but nonetheless put up 15.8 and 12.5 points per game, respectively.  The best part is, Barnes has an even higher ceiling than both of the mentioned players (at that point in their career) and I can confidently say he can put up somewhere between 16 to 20 points a game.  The Mavs like to share the ball, and that will bode well for Barnes, who should be a focal point on offense and will be given the opportunity to make plays on that end of the floor.

If Barnes can develop some more consistency on his jumper and continue to improve his ability to take the ball inside, he’ll be a force to be reckoned with.  He has already shown that he has a solid turnaround-J, ferocious athleticism, and -- of course -- a one-dribble pull-up (his personal favorite).  If he gets the confidence to knock them all down regularly, then you have yourself a complete scorer.  Don’t be surprised to see Barnes leading this Mavericks team on a playoff run next Spring.

The Black Falcon takes flight to Dallas.


Let us know in the comments who you think will breakout this upcoming season.

Philadelphia 76ers Offseason Report: R.I.P. the Process

Daniel Arellano
Staff Writer

From the outside looking in, the last three years of Philadelphia basketball had been a tumultuous cocktail of abysmal talent mixed with years of shrewd planning. Spearheaded by Sam Hinkie, the 76ers had become a target of both praise and jeering. Regardless of opinion on the matter, a few things had become undeniable:

1. The 76ers were truly gaming the system. Losing as many games as possible by filling out the roster with young nobodies placed the 76ers in as strong of a position as possible before each year's lottery. They even struck gold (or at least silver) in their discovery of the then-unknown wing Robert Covington.
2. The front office had only blown up a roster that had already been doomed by the enormous price of Andrew Bynum. Making things worse, after multiple knee injuries and surgeries Bynum admitted that he simply  didn't have the same love for the game that he once had.
3. The Sixers were bad. Like, really bad. This was reflected in the ticket sales. After Hinkie's hiring the Philadelphia attendance rate dropped from 17th to 29th to dead last  in 2015. 

As interesting of a game theory experiment it may had been, "The Process" was a stain upon the NBA's brand. Even the most casual of fans had heard about the infamous 26 straight losses in the 2013-2014 season and the 28 game losing streak during the 2015 calendar year. But what many didn't acknowledge was that Philadelphia had acquired a treasure trove of assets in exchange for veterans and the franchise's proud history. In any case, the success of "The Process" simply cannot be evaluated yet. Whether Sam Hinkie was a visionary or simply the blind leading the blind will be determined by the next few years in the City of Brotherly Love.

The introduction of the Colangelo duo to the franchise marked the end of Hinkies tenure. In a remarkable display of coincidence, Bryan Colangelo was appointed GM by his father the day immediately following Hinkie's resignation. Whispers around the league have suggested that commissioner Silver may have played a role in the disestablishment of "The Process." Boom or bust, Hinkie will not be able to reap the seeds that he has sown in Philadelphia. 

At the very least, the Sixers are beginning to resemble an NBA team thanks to a couple of signings in the more orthodox approach taken by the Colangelos. Two much needed veterans have been signed in the form of Gerald Henderson and Jerryd Bayless (2 years/$18M and 3/$27M, respectively). Although these contracts could be considered slight overpays by the front office, it is a great sign for the organization that two veterans have chosen to come to a team that can be instantly ruled out by most free agents. Both are guards that should complement incoming rookie Ben Simmons well due to their ability to function without the ball and provide spacing. Although neither are enough to turn around any team in the association, this is a strong step towards a functioning roster. 

Of course, the Sixer's pride and joy lies not with its tactful free agent signings but with its seemingly limitless supply of draft picks and incoming rookies. The athletic duo of Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid has one of the highest ceilings in the NBA, but it is not without some very obvious question marks. Perhaps the most obvious is the health of Joel Embiid, a rookie member of the draft class of 2014. Let that sink in for a minute. This is no Euro stash that chose to play overseas, such as Dario Saric. Rather, Embiid has simply been unable to participate in a single game since being drafted over two years ago. Although believers may point to numerous Instagram videos of him beating up on poor assistant coaches, anybody that remembers Yi Jianlian will wisely withhold judgement until he sets foot on an NBA court.