2016-17 Breakout Star: Harrison Barnes

John Askins

Staff Writer

After barely being able to hit the broad side of a barn in the 2016 playoffs, Harrison Barnes signed a 4yr/$94.4m max deal with the Dallas Mavericks in the offseason.  We all knew a max deal was coming his way, but his departure to the Mavericks turned some heads.

Barnes was drafted 8th overall in the 2012 NBA Draft by the Golden State Warriors, and has since spent 4 years playing third and fourth fiddle to the likes of Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green.  We obviously can't argue with that, those are three of the 10 best players in the league right now.  But given the right attention and opportunity, Barnes has the chance to become a potent scorer.  Coming out of high school, he was the #1 overall recruit in the nation, and it wasn’t hard to see why.  He possesses spectacular athleticism (check out these posters on Nikola Pekovic and Ersan Ilyasova), can shoot the ball well from 3 (career 38% from beyond the arc), and put it on the floor and take it to the hoop with some vigor.  He didn’t quite turn out to be the #1 overall college or NBA player he was initially expected to be, but he was (and still is) brimming with potential. 

The problem is, Barnes hasn’t shown a whole lot of improvement through his 4 years in the association.  His PPG has risen each of those years, however that number has risen from 9.2 as a rookie to just 11.7 this past season.  On top of that, there hasn’t been a significant change in his shooting percentages or secondary stats like rebounds and assists.  As stated before, the tools are there, but he wasn’t given the attention needed to thrive in the midst of a crowded Warriors roster.  However, that’s exactly what’s going to be different with the Mavs; they’re likely going to run a starting lineup of Deron Williams, Wesley Matthews, Barnes, Dirk Nowitzki, and Andrew Bogut.  That's quite a few other mouths to feed, but none of the aforementioned players are possession eating scorers, meaning Barnes will get his shots.  The only person he’ll clearly have to take a backseat to is Dirk, who is still a fantastic basketball player, but isn’t quite the ball-dominating star he used to be.  Moreover, Barnes is the second highest paid player on the team, so the front office is going to make sure that coach Rick Carlisle gives him every chance to succeed and become a star.

On the topic of Carlisle, the Mavericks coach has proven in his 8 years that he knows how to make the most out of his players.  While not many recent Mavericks have crossed the 20-point-per-game threshold with the exception of Dirk, there have been a few teams like the 2011 Championship squad that featured a plethora of very productive players like Shawn Marion, Jason Terry, Caron Butler, and J.J. Barea.  Both Terry and Marion were at the late stages of their career, well past their prime, but nonetheless put up 15.8 and 12.5 points per game, respectively.  The best part is, Barnes has an even higher ceiling than both of the mentioned players (at that point in their career) and I can confidently say he can put up somewhere between 16 to 20 points a game.  The Mavs like to share the ball, and that will bode well for Barnes, who should be a focal point on offense and will be given the opportunity to make plays on that end of the floor.

If Barnes can develop some more consistency on his jumper and continue to improve his ability to take the ball inside, he’ll be a force to be reckoned with.  He has already shown that he has a solid turnaround-J, ferocious athleticism, and -- of course -- a one-dribble pull-up (his personal favorite).  If he gets the confidence to knock them all down regularly, then you have yourself a complete scorer.  Don’t be surprised to see Barnes leading this Mavericks team on a playoff run next Spring.

The Black Falcon takes flight to Dallas.


Let us know in the comments who you think will breakout this upcoming season.