Reverse Jam's NBA Power Rankings: Week 0

REVERSE JAM PRE-SEASON RANKINGS

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Matt: 

Buy Low: Minnesota

With the addition of Kris Dunn to a young and ambitious roster that boasts the last two Rookie of the Years, the Timberwolves are going to take a big leap this season and squeak into the playoffs given the growth of young stars: Andrew Wiggins and Karl-Anthony Towns



Sell High: Knicks

As a fan of the Knicks, it breaks my wishful soul to admit that, no - The Knicks won’t peak at 3rd in the East and obliterate teams.  Throwback Melo and vintage Rose aren’t going to appear and complement Porzingod to terrorize the Eastern conference.  If Rose were to somehow play this season at the level as described on my earlier post, then it would be a different story.  Simply put, Melo is getting old, Porzingis is young, and their most hyped offseason acquisitions are a huge gamble.

Daniel: 

Buy low: Houston Rockets

Under the leadership of Mike “Pringles” D’Antoni, Houston looks poised to make some noise in a tumultuous Western Conference. New additions Ryan Anderson and Eric Gordon should fit right in with the head coach’s ideology of offense as the first, second, and third priority. Houston has averaged over 123 points per game in the preseason and looks to be a serious challenger to Golden State as the best offense in the league. In the last two years, Houston has the first and third highest three point shooting seasons by volume. Don’t be surprised if they break their own record by launching well above 30 three pointers a game. 

Of course, the defense will be porous at best. Beverley is not the defender he was just two years ago and Ariza can only tip so many passes.  James Harden and Eric Gordon are a defensive tandem incapable of stopping even an average wing duo. The introduction of Ryan Anderson will only put more pressure on the young shoulders of Clint Capela on the defensive end. HOWEVER, if this team can cobble together a defense that ranks above 22nd or so, the offense should be potent enough to secure a top 4 seed in the West.

Sell High: Milwaukee Bucks  

A star emerges… and a team declines. The loss of Khris Middleton cannot be understated. Last season, the Bucks as a team made 440 three pointers, good for 30th in the league. The Bucks were the worst three point shooting team in a league inevitably swinging towards pace and space. Khris Middleton made 143 threes, nearly a third of the entire roster’s total! Couple that in with the loss of Jerryd Bayless, and just like that the Bucks will have to replace well over half of an already abysmal three point total. The Bucks are so concerned that they traded third string guard Tyler Ennis for forward Michael Beasley and traded Michael Carter-Williams for Tony Snell. Tony Snell! Beasley and Snell are not the answer to any sort of basketball question worth asking. Greg Monroe’s fit in Milwaukee also continues to raise both eyebrows and questions. Simply put, this is a team looking to find an identity beyond “the team with all the oversized players.”

Playing around with Big Ball and Point Giannis is all well and good, but at this point, the Bucks look like a team that would be happy to be in the race for the 8 seed. 

John: 

Buy Low: Charlotte Hornets

As sad as it may be, the Hornets 2016 playoff run was ended by somebody who wasn’t even a part of the organization.  Dwyane Wade was ready to pack his bags and think about free agency… then a voice from the crowd made its way into Wade’s ears, and the garbage that was spoken catalyzed a chemical reaction in his brain that caused his body to think it was 2006, and hell was risen.  He hit two straight 3-pointers -- after making a total of 7 all year -- and brought the Heat back in a pivotal Game 6 of the Eastern Conference First Round.  The Hornets then keeled over in Game 7, and thus ended their season.  This is the legend of the Purple Shirt Man.

But that season is done, and the Hornets are primed for a top-5 finish in the Eastern Conference. While losing Jeremy Lin and Big Al may take some punch out of the bench unit, I don't think the losses will be game-changers.  Kemba Walker has emerged as not only a force at the point, but a true leader and somebody they can lean on when they really need a bucket.  With MKG back at full health, Batum re-signed, and Zeller poised for a breakout, this team is definitely going places.  The squad possesses all of the necessary components to be efficient in today’s NBA: pacing, spacing, and a strong defensive core.  If everyone stays healthy, expect them to make a stand in a tough Eastern Conference.  Keep an eye on this team as the season goes on.

Sell High: Sacramento Kings

Do you smell a dumpster fire?  Maybe a little harsh, but this team has 99 problems.  Rudy Gay, their second best player, has publicly stated that he doesn’t want to play for the team.  Their starting point guard is suspended for the beginning of the season on domestic abuse charges, and his backup is Ty Lawson. No comment.  Ben McLemore makes a good case for least impactful starter in the league, Rondo is no longer there to force feed them good shots, and their “big” free agent pull was Arron Afflalo.  The show revolves around mercurial big man Boogie Cousins, who is incredibly talented but really needs to mature if he wants to get anything done in the league.  So yes, this team has about as much stability as the San Andreas fault line.  Even though they have one of most -- if not the most -- offensively talented big man in the league, I just can't put them ahead of the promising young teams like the Nuggets and Suns.

Not to mention the defense, which will undoubtedly be a bottom dweller.  Cousins is a heck of a shot blocker, but isn’t really the force that guys like Deandre Jordan or Hassan Whiteside are down there.    There'll be a lot of pressure on him perimeter defense that's looking to be average on the best nights.  Many analysts are betting on Sacramento to gather a bag full of wins based solely on DeMarcus’ talent, but I really can’t see them getting too far past the 25-win threshold this season.

New Orleans Pelicans Offseason Report: Trouble In the Big Easy

Marcus Rabara
Staff Writer

After showing promise during the 2014-15 season by making the playoffs for the first time in the post-Chris Paul era, the Pelicans have regressed under the tutelage of former Phoenix Suns head coach, Alvin Gentry. The firing of often-baffling coach Monty Williams following an abbreviated playoff run was hoped by many to be another step in the path towards the first championship in franchise history; unfortunately, the 2015-16 season proved to be a struggle for the injury-plagued squad. Losing the MVP level talent of team captain Anthony Davis due to nagging injuries for much of the season was a huge blow, but larger injuries to Tyreke Evans, Eric Gordon, and Jrue Holiday proved costly as well. However, even at full strength, a lack of depth and inconsistent play from key stars left them with a disappointing 30-52 record, just 12th in the Conference. This season, the Pelicans hope to return to the playoffs with the addition of some new players as well as a mostly returning (and healthy) starting lineup from last season.

First-round draft pick and University of Oklahoma star shooting guard Buddy Hield was arguably the best pure shooter in the draft class this year. Hield proved his ability to make NBA distance 3-pointers, often draining from well beyond the college line. The Pelicans hope he is able to space the floor for superstar Anthony Davis to work inside, something former Pelicans SG Eric Gordon often failed to do. Langston Galloway, an under-the-radar signing from the Knicks, has proved that he is more than capable of running an NBA offense from the point guard position in his 2 years in New York, and is a good insurance policy behind the oft-injured and mercurial Jrue Holiday. In a surprise move, the Pelicans gambled on small forward Solomon Hill, signing him to a 4-year deal worth $48 million this offseason. Despite the questionable contract, Hill could also be a solid addition to a team in need of talent and depth. The former 23rd overall pick in the 2013 draft showed an ability to be a serviceable starter for the Pacers in the absence of Paul George. Given adequate playing time, which he failed to get with the Pacers last season, Hill could very well be an above average addition to the Pelicans roster.

In a weaker Western Conference than the one they made the playoffs in just two years ago, the Pelicans could again find themselves in the playoff hunt this season. With a late-season hot streak or breakout season from one of its young or underutilized players, it is not out of the question that the Pelicans could push their way into the first round and beyond, despite their weaknesses. Don’t be surprised if you see The Unibrow and his crew upset an older favorite next June.

Wingspan in the Gameplan: A Brief Study With Way Too Many Numbers

Daniel Arellano

Staff Writer

The NBA draft has always been a nebulous matter at best, with scouting rumors flying around haphazardly as teams frantically try to avoid making a decision that will be mocked for years to come (shoutout to Joe Dumars). Teams must examine everything about a prospect, from their mental strength, shooting stroke, and of course, the body that they bring to the league. Around that time of year, one of the most prominent buzzwords that gets tossed around by pundits is the highly valued wingspan. 

As with everything basketball related, offense has already been covered to death. And as prized as those lanky arms may be, outside of the paint, it appears to be a detriment towards a player’s shooting ability. Thanks to redditor /u/mowshowitz, we can see that players with particularly long arms actually appear to be hindered, once they leave the restricted area. Just watch Deandre Jordan for a game and you'll quickly see that he is very effective within his range, which just happens to be the length of his arm.

Defense, however, is a completely different story. Take a look around the league and you’ll find that the top tier defenders almost always have those annoyingly long arms that seem to completely envelop their man. There are few sights as entertaining as Kawhi Leonard flying around the court with his crazy octopus arms, disrupting passing lanes and making his mark appear to effectively disappear. Turn your sights to the shortest rim protector in the game, Draymond Green. After coming into the league as a tweener, Green has overcome his “short” stature thanks to his uncannily long wingspan (85.25 inches). Although he defies all prior thoughts about centers in the NBA, the reasoning seems to be pretty intuitive: a player with longer arms is more easily able to disrupt a shot attempt. Poor Dwight Howard, a victim of no-neck syndrome, knows this better than most. Although he seems to be closer to 6’9” than 6’11”, his standing reach rings in at a towering 9’3.5’’. 

We have to have some measurable way to test this. As revered as the eye test may be, it can favor the players with positive reputations that have taken a step back (think Jimmy Butler) or perhaps never really had it all (think Russell Westbrook). One of the most practical (if crude) ways we can do this is with a simple corollary test. 

At any given time there are around 390 (30 teams with 13 roster spots) players in the NBA. In the interest of time, I eventually settled on the sample size of 60 as it was nearly 15% of this population. To ensure that we weeded out all of the scrubs that never got any burn in the league, I limited the available pool of players to those that had played in 60% of all games in the last three years with at least 15 minutes per game. In a perfect world, this will prevent any statistical outliers, á la 2016 Nikola Jokic. (Side note, Jokic has undoubtedly earned his chance to get big time minutes, and is poised for a year that has real significance outside of a stat geek’s wet dream.)

The NBA has always been a league of tall and lanky guys, but we need some kind of equalizer to compare the defense of Giannis to the defense of JJ Redick. (Los Angeles’ favorite sharpshooter is one of only a few players in the league to have a wingspan shorter than his height.) Creating a simple ratio of wingspan: height should do the trick here nicely. 

Out of curiosity I found that the average American male has a wingspan:height ratio of 1.024, compared to the sampled NBA player mean of 1.059. Although the difference appears small on first glance, it must be remembered that this is the exact purpose of the number: to equalize the ratio between people of different sizes. The distribution of the sample appears fairly normal according to the histogram. If the average American male (yeah, you) was included in the data, he would find himself in the third column.

The measure that I chose to use to represent defensive effectiveness is Opponent Field Goal Percentage Difference. This statistic represents the difference in shooting percentage when a particular player is defending the shooter; a negative value indicates that a player is effective on defense and a positive value indicates the opposite. Just like any other statistic in the sport, it is useless on the small scale when used without any context. For our purposes, it will do the job nicely.

WARNING: MATH

I hate to break out mathematics as much as anyone, but in order to make sure that the results mean something, I will have to conduct a hypothesis test. The best test in this case would not be the traditional one sample z-test but instead is the Pearson Correlation Coefficient.


Stick with me for a second, and it’ll pay off, I swear.


Essentially, this test will find the r value, which will lie between -1 and 1, depending on the strength of the relationship. A value close to 1 indicates a positive relationship, while a value close to -1 indicates a negative relationship. An r value near 0 indicates that there is little to no relationship between the two variables. (If we wind up with that, then I just wasted a whole lot of time on SportVU.) A good indication of the results of the test can be seen by simply plotting the data.

So far, so good. The scatter plot suggests that there is at least a moderate negative correlation as indicated by the inverse relationship between WS:H and OFG%. Whether this is accurate will be reflected in the actual testing. At the very least, we got a nice chart to point to when this whole thing wraps up.

Before beginning a hypothesis test, it is necessary to check that all required conditions have been met. In order to find a Pearson Correlation Coefficient the data must be “either an interval or ratio scale” This is satisfied, as both variables are in the form of a ratio (percentage is simply another form of a ratio x:100). Also, the data must be appear to be linear in its relation. Taking a quick look at the chart above, and there doesn’t seem to be any weird bends or dips. Fortunately, statistics allows for a bit of liberalness when dealing with this sort of thing.

With the necessary assumptions confirmed, the data can actual be tested. For the purposes of this test the null hypothesis (H0) will be that there is no relationship between wingspan and OFG%. (Hint: We really don’t want to accept that) The alternate hypothesis ( H1) will be that there is evidence to reject the null hypothesis and state that there is at least some sort of relationship between having long arms and being a plus defender.

We’re almost done with the math, I promise. It will get worse before it gets better, though.

The formula for conducting the Pearson Correlation is:

I’ll spare you the details but this is what the final function will look like:

Yada, yada, just plugging in some number while we wait for the NBA season to finally start...

Essentially the r-squared value indicates that 26.1% of the changes in OFG% can be attributed to the change in relative wingspan.

And for the other 73.9%? That would be everything else. Maybe the shooter got a nice bounce. Maybe the defender bit on a silly head fake. The results are hardly perfect, but they do make an interesting piece of evidence in the discussion.

TL;DR

As painful as it may be to admit, this test doesn’t tell us too much. Wingspan is just another tool in a good defender’s repertoire. Even the most physically gifted of defenders can be a detriment if they lack the IQ to capitalize on their advantages. There will always be players that have all of the tools to be transcendent, but lack the mindset or dedication to put it all together. This is pretty much what any student of the game knows already; you wouldn’t be Gary Payton if your arms were a little longer, so hold off on that “corrective” surgery.